Weekly Market Commentary March 9, 2026 The Markets Energy disruptions, rising prices, and a weak jobs report cloud the economic outlook. It would take a lot more space than we have here to discuss everything that happened last week and the many ways these events may affect financial markets and the economy. So, we are going to focus on energy, inflation, and employment. Energy: Strait to a standstill The Strait of Hormuz is in the news. As we learned during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-88), the narrow passage is a vulnerable point in the supply chain for oil. “The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which about a fifth of the world’s oil passes. Tankers traveling through the strait, which is bordered in the north by Iran, carry oil and gas from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE and Iran. Most of that oil goes to Asia,” reported Jon Gambrell and Mae Anderson of AP. In the 1980s, both Iran and Iraq attacked noncombatant tankers. The toll on shipping was severe. According to the Strauss Center for International Security and Law at the University of Texas in Austin, about 23 percent of petroleum tankers, 39 percent of bulk carriers, and 34 percent of freighters that were attacked sank or were declared a constructive total loss (CTL). Today, vessel owners remain wary of the risks of traveling through the Straits. As a result, the current conflict in Iran has brought travel through the Strait of Hormuz to a standstill. “More than 200 tankers are idling on both sides of the strait, leaving Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar unable to transport crude oil and petroleum products,” reported Ben Cahill in Barron’s. “ Inflation: Oil and gas prices rising In recent months, lower gasoline prices have helped keep U.S. inflation low. However, “The attack on Iran is unraveling that. Crude prices have soared, ramping up inflation concerns and complicating the Fed’s path to cutting interest rates again. Treasury yields have jumped as a result, counter to the administration’s stated wish for lower borrowing costs,” reported Phil Serafino of Bloomberg. Last week, the benchmark price for crude oil rose to a two-year high, reported Laura Sanicola, Alex Kozul-Wright, and Anita Hamilton of Barron’s. Natural gas prices are increasing, too. Qatar’s state-owned oil and gas company is one of the world’s largest producers of liquified natural gas (LNG). Last week, it stopped “production at the world’s largest export facility after it was targeted in an Iranian drone attack,” reported Elena Mazneva, Stephen Stapczynski, and Salma El Wardany of Bloomberg. “While Asian countries buy most of the LNG shipped from the Middle East, a disruption will increase competition for alternative supplies and push up prices worldwide.” In addition, Qatar offered “a total of 10 liquefied natural gas tankers that it controls for lease, as the country’s massive export facility in the Persian Gulf remains shut due to the ongoing war in the Middle East,” reported Stephen Stapczynski and Ruth Liao of Bloomberg. Rising energy prices and higher inflation have the potential to disrupt the global economy. In the United States, rising energy costs could affect: - Individuals as inflation moves higher, interest rates rise, and the cost of borrowing increases.
- Businesses as the cost of producing goods and delivering services grows and borrowing costs increase.
- Government as interest on the national debt increases along with interest rates. The United States national debt stands at about “$33 trillion, or more than $250,000 per household,” reported Jack Hough of Barron’s.
Employment: A lot fewer jobs than expected for February Last Friday, the jobs report blindsided markets. Economists had expected 60,000 new jobs in February. Instead, the economy lost 92,000, reported Barron’s, and the U.S. unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4 percent. “The decline…was largely due to one-time factors such as striking health-care workers, freezing temperatures, and benchmark methodology revisions—all of which cloud the signal about underlying labor conditions. But the sharp job losses also laid bare the fact that there has been little hiring across industries nationwide, and February continued this trend. Only two sectors added jobs last month,” reported Megan Leonhardt of Barron’s. It’s too early to know whether these numbers will be revised favorably over the coming months. Last week, stock and bond markets were volatile as investors tried to make sense of the multitude of factors affecting financial markets. Major U.S. stock indexes finished the week lower. The yield on all but the shortest maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved higher over the week. | 
